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Credit Spread Dynamics: Evidence from Latin America

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Abstract

This paper examines the behaviour of credit spreads on key sovereign issuers from the Latin American region, which accounts for more than one third of international bond issues by developing, or emerging, markets. Since the late 1990s, credit spreads on Latin American issues have declined broadly inline with those in other emerging markets. Recent empirical analysis has explained this phenomenon by identifying critical macroeconomic factors, including the reduction in systematic risk in individual markets, although the structural models from the theoretical finance literature also predict the importance of key default and interest rate variables. This contribution adds to the understanding of these issues by investigating the application of structural models to the Latin American setting, one historically characterized by excessive volatility and susceptibility to episodes of default.

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File URL: http://www.deakin.edu.au/buslaw/aef/workingpapers/papers/2007-13aef.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Deakin University, Faculty of Business and Law, School of Accounting, Economics and Finance in its series Accounting, Finance, Financial Planning and Insurance Series with number 2007_13.

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Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: 24 Aug 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:dkn:acctwp:aef_2007_13

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Related research

Keywords: credit spreads; long-run dynamics; Latin America; sovereign bonds; cointegration;

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