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Regulatory Change and Micro Structure Effects in SPI Futures

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    Abstract

    In this article we investigate and test for structural change in conditional volatility and micro structure effects in the Australian Share Price Index futures contract. The modelling is conducted around the periods following the introduction of an automated screen-based trading system and alterations to the trading day. Multiple point Switching GARCH models are employed following a detailed examination of conditional volatility, volume and maturity features. The data is sampled at 5, 15 and 30-minute intervals from transaction records supplied by the Sydney Futures Exchange. Micro-structure features that are found to be important in the preliminary analysis are incorporated in the formal models. Failure to test for and then account for any of these market features would imply that tests for structural changes are mis-specified. There is significant evidence of structural changes in both the persistence of volatility shocks and simultaneous volume effects following the change to screen trading in this futures market.

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    File URL: http://www.deakin.edu.au/buslaw/aef/workingpapers/papers/2007_08aef.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Deakin University, Faculty of Business and Law, School of Accounting, Economics and Finance in its series Accounting, Finance, Financial Planning and Insurance Series with number 2007_08.

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    Length: 37 pages
    Date of creation: 07 May 2007
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:dkn:acctwp:aef_2007_08

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    Related research

    Keywords: Regulatory intervention; Structural Breaks; Micro Structure Effects.;

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    1. Gannon, G.L., 1994. "Simultaneous Volatility Effects in Index Futures," Papers 94-1, Melbourne - Centre in Finance.
    2. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    3. Tauchen, George E & Pitts, Mark, 1983. "The Price Variability-Volume Relationship on Speculative Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(2), pages 485-505, March.
    4. Serletis, Apostolos, 1992. "Maturity effects in energy futures," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 150-157, April.
    5. Grammatikos, Theoharry & Saunders, Anthony, 1986. "Futures Price Variability: A Test of Maturity and Volume Effects," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(2), pages 319-30, April.
    6. Nick Taylor & Dick van Dijk & Philip Hans Franses & André Lucas, 1999. "SETS, Arbitrage Activity, and Stock Price Dynamics," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 99-003/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    7. Karpoff, Jonathan M., 1987. "The Relation between Price Changes and Trading Volume: A Survey," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(01), pages 109-126, March.
    8. Lamoureux, Christopher G & Lastrapes, William D, 1990. "Persistence in Variance, Structural Change, and the GARCH Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(2), pages 225-34, April.
    9. Epps, Thomas W & Epps, Mary Lee, 1976. "The Stochastic Dependence of Security Price Changes and Transaction Volumes: Implications for the Mixture-of-Distributions Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 44(2), pages 305-21, March.
    10. Chamberlain, Trevor W, 1989. "Maturity Effects in Futures Markets: Some Evidence from the City of London," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 36(1), pages 90-95, February.
    11. Copeland, Thomas E, 1976. "A Model of Asset Trading under the Assumption of Sequential Information Arrival," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(4), pages 1149-68, September.
    12. Freund, William C. & Larrain, Maurice & Pagano, Michael S., 1997. "Market efficiency before and after the introduction of electronic trading at the Toronto stock exchange," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 29-56.
    13. Clark, Peter K, 1973. "A Subordinated Stochastic Process Model with Finite Variance for Speculative Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(1), pages 135-55, January.
    14. Lamoureux, Christopher G & Lastrapes, William D, 1990. " Heteroskedasticity in Stock Return Data: Volume versus GARCH Effects," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(1), pages 221-29, March.
    15. John Board & Gleb Sandmann & Charles Sutcliffe, 2001. "The Effect of Futures Market Volume on Spot Market Volatility," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(7&8), pages 799-819.
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