Estimating Forward Pricing Function: How Efficient is Indian Stock Index Futures Market?
AbstractThis paper uses Indian stock futures data to explore unbiased expectations and efficient market hypothesis. Having experienced voluminous transactions within a short time span after its establishment, the Indian stock futures market provides an unparalleled case for exploring these issues involving expectation and efficiency. Besides analyzing market efficiency between cash and futures prices using cointegration and error correction frameworks, the efficiency hypothesis is also investigated after explicitly modeling the underlying state of the market (expansion or contraction) through the first-order Markov switching set-up. The results based on Markov switching analysis show that relatively longer time horizon is more effective in eliminating arbitrage opportunities than the short run.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Deakin University, Faculty of Business and Law, School of Accounting, Economics and Finance in its series Accounting, Finance, Financial Planning and Insurance Series with number 2006_02.
Length: 31 pages
Date of creation: 27 May 2006
Date of revision:
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Efficient market hypothesis; Futures market; Cointegration; Error correction; Markov switching.;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
- G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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