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Variance effects in Bongaarts-Feeney formula

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  • Hans-Peter Kohler

    (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)

  • Dimiter Philipov

    (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)

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    Abstract

    Bongaarts and Feeney (1998) have recently proposed an adjusted total fertility rate to disentangle tempo effects from changes in the quantum of fertility. We propose an extension to the Bongaarts and Feeney formula that includes variance effects, i.e., changes in the variance of the fertility schedule over time. If these variance effects are ignored, the mean age at birth and the adjusted total fertility rate are biased. We provide approximations for these biases, and we extend the TFR adjustment to fertility schedules with changing variance. We apply our method to the Swedish baby boom and bust and show that variance effects are important for evaluating the relative contributions of tempo and quantum effects to the fertility change from 1985 to 1895. (AUTHORS)

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany in its series MPIDR Working Papers with number WP-1999-001.

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    Date of creation: Feb 1999
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    Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-1999-001

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    Web page: http://www.demogr.mpg.de/

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    Cited by:
    1. Edith Duclos & Pierre Lefebvre & Philip Merrigan, 2001. "A 'Natural Experiment' on the Economics of Storks: Evidence on the Impact of Differential Family Policy on Fertility Rates in Canada," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 136, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal.

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