The Progress of Computing
AbstractThe present study analyzes computer performance over the last century and a half. Three results stand out. First, there has been a phenomenal increase in computer power over the twentieth century. Performance in constant dollars or in terms of labor units has improved since 1900 by a factor in the order of 1 trillion to 5 trillion, which represent compound growth rates of over 30 percent per year for a century. Second, there were relatively small improvements in efficiency (perhaps a factor of ten) in the century before World War II. Around World War II, however, there was a substantial acceleration in productivity, and the growth in computer power from 1940 to 2001 has averaged 55 percent per year. Third, this study develops estimates of the growth in computer power relying on performance rather than on input-based measures typically used by official statistical agencies. The price declines using performance-based measures are markedly higher than those reported in the official statistics.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University in its series Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers with number 1324.
Length: 52 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2001
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA
Phone: (203) 432-3702
Fax: (203) 432-6167
Web page: http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/
More information through EDIRC
Postal: Cowles Foundation, Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- O3 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Technological Change; Research and Development; Intellectual Property Rights
- O4 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- N1 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2001-11-27 (All new papers)
- NEP-ENT-2001-11-27 (Entrepreneurship)
- NEP-NET-2001-11-27 (Network Economics)
- NEP-TID-2001-11-27 (Technology & Industrial Dynamics)
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Silverberg, Gerald & Verspagen, Bart, 2005.
"A percolation model of innovation in complex technology spaces,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,
Elsevier, vol. 29(1-2), pages 225-244, January.
- Silverberg, G. & Verspagen, B., 2002. "A Percolation Model of Innovation in Complex Technology Spaces," Eindhoven Center for Innovation Studies (ECIS) working paper series 02.12, Eindhoven Center for Innovation Studies (ECIS).
- Silverberg, G. & Verspagen, B., 2005. "A percolation model of innovation in complex technology spaces," Open Access publications from Maastricht University urn:nbn:nl:ui:27-17994, Maastricht University.
- Gerald Silverberg & Bart Verspagen, 2002. "A Percolation Model of Innovation in Complex Technology Spaces," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 24, Society for Computational Economics.
- Doraszelski, Ulrich, 2004. "Innovations, improvements, and the optimal adoption of new technologies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(7), pages 1461-1480, April.
- Guy Michaels, 2007.
"The Division of Labor, Coordination, and the Demand for Information Processing,"
CEP Discussion Papers
dp0811, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Michaels, Guy, 2007. "The Division of Labour, Coordination, and the Demand for Information Processing," CEPR Discussion Papers 6358, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- David H. Autor & Frank Levy & Richard J. Murnane, 2001.
"The Skill Content of Recent Technological Change: An Empirical Exploration,"
NBER Working Papers
8337, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- David Autor & Frank Levy & Richard Murnane, 2003. "The skill content of recent technological change: an empirical exploration," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov.
- David H. Autor & Frank Levy & Richard J. Murnane, 2003. "The Skill Content Of Recent Technological Change: An Empirical Exploration," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 118(4), pages 1279-1333, November.
- Silverberg,Gerald & Verspagen,Bart, 2002. "A Percolation Model of Innovation in Complex Technology," Research Memoranda 032, Maastricht : MERIT, Maastricht Economic Research Institute on Innovation and Technology.
- Pillai, Unni, 2011. "A model of technological progress in the microprocessor industry," MPRA Paper 31881, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Morrison, Alan & Wilhelm Jr, William J, 2005. "The Demise of Investment Banking Partnerships: Theory and Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 4904, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Bart van Ark & Robert Inklaar & Robert H. McGuckin, 2003. "ICT and Productivity in Europe and the United States: Where Do the Differences Come From?," Economics Program Working Papers 03-05, The Conference Board, Economics Program.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Glena Ames).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.