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Origine sociale et réussite scolaire : un modèle en chaîne de Markov estimé sur données individuelles belges

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  • Olivier DONNI

    (Université de Mons-Hainaut et CREPP)

  • Bernard LEJEUNE

    (Université de Liège, UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE) et ERUDITE)

Abstract

Cet article étudie les relations entre l'origine socio-économique des élèves belges et leur parcours scolaire primaire et secondaire. Il repose sur l'hypothèse que le parcours scolaire des élèves peut être décrit par un processus de Markov. Sur la base d'un échantillon transversal d'un millier d'enfants, en fonction de variables socio-économiques et pour chacune des années de scolarité obligatoire, les probabilités individuelles de poursuivre un parcours scolaire « normal », c.-à-d. Sans redoublement ni relégation dans une filière de second choix, sont estimées. Nos résultats montrent que derrière les substantiels taux agrégés de redoublement qui caractérisent le système scolaire belge se cachent en fait de profondes inégalités sociales.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES) in its series Discussion Papers (REL - Recherches Economiques de Louvain) with number 1997044.

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Length: 25
Date of creation: 01 Dec 1997
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Handle: RePEc:ctl:louvre:1997044

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