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Compound Markov counting processes and their applications to modeling infinitesimally over-dispersed systems

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  • Bretó, Carles
  • Ionides, Edward L.

Abstract

We propose an infinitesimal dispersion index for Markov counting processes. We show that, under standard moment existence conditions, a process is infinitesimally (over-) equi-dispersed if, and only if, it is simple (compound), i.e. it increases in jumps of one (or more) unit(s), even though infinitesimally equi-dispersed processes might be under-, equi- or over-dispersed using previously studied indices. Compound processes arise, for example, when introducing continuous-time white noise to the rates of simple processes resulting in Lévy-driven SDEs. We construct multivariate infinitesimally over dispersed compartment models and queuing networks, suitable for applications where moment constraints inherent to simple processes do not hold.

Suggested Citation

  • Bretó, Carles & Ionides, Edward L., 2011. "Compound Markov counting processes and their applications to modeling infinitesimally over-dispersed systems," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws111914, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    • Handle: RePEc:cte:wsrepe:ws111914
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    Cited by:

    1. Bretó, Carles, 2012. "Time changes that result in multiple points in continuous-time Markov counting processes," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 82(12), pages 2229-2234.
    2. Bretó, Carles, 2014. "Trajectory composition of Poisson time changes and Markov counting systems," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 91-98.
    3. Jonathan Fintzi & Jon Wakefield & Vladimir N. Minin, 2022. "A linear noise approximation for stochastic epidemic models fit to partially observed incidence counts," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 78(4), pages 1530-1541, December.
    4. Bretó, Carles, 2012. "On the infinitesimal dispersion of multivariate Markov counting systems," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 82(4), pages 720-725.
    5. King, Aaron A. & Nguyen, Dao & Ionides, Edward L., 2016. "Statistical Inference for Partially Observed Markov Processes via the R Package pomp," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 69(i12).
    6. King, Aaron A. & Lin, Qianying & Ionides, Edward L., 2022. "Markov genealogy processes," Theoretical Population Biology, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 77-91.

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    Keywords

    Continuous time;

    Statistics

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