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A Dinâmica dos Termos de Troca e da Balança Comercial: Curva S na Europa?

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Author Info

  • Alda Rito

    ()
    (Direcção Geral de Estudos e Previsão, Ministério das Finanças)

  • Alexandra Ferreira

    ()
    (Departamento de Prospectiva e Planeamento, Ministério das Finanças)

  • Tiago Sequeira

    ()
    (Departamento de Gestão e Economia, Universidade da Beira Interior)

Abstract

Documentam-se as principais características cíclicas de variáveis ligadas ao comércio internacional dos países mais periféricos da União Europeia e comparam-se com as características do conjunto da União, apresentando evidências de que a balança comercial está correlacionada negativamente com movimentos passados e presentes dos termos de troca e positivamente com movimentos passados, dando origem à designada S. Aplica-se o modelo de Backus, Kehoe e Kydland (1994) para verificar a sua aproximação aos dados destes países e avaliar a sua robustez a outras realidades empíricas. Verificaram-se as principais vantagens do modelo já identificadas mas a robustez do modelo a diferenças entre países apenas é verificada numa das variáveis: a balança comercial.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Universidade da Beira Interior, Departamento de Gestão e Economia (Portugal) in its series Working Papers de Gestão, Economia e Marketing (Management, Economics and Marketing Working Papers) with number 7/2001.

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Date of creation: 2001
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Handle: RePEc:csh:wpecon:7/2001

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Keywords: Ciclos Económicos Reais; Balança Comercial; Termos de Troca; Curva S;

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