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A Dinâmica dos Termos de Troca e da Balança Comercial: Curva S na Europa?

Author

Listed:
  • Alda Rito

    (Direcção Geral de Estudos e Previsão, Ministério das Finanças)

  • Alexandra Ferreira

    (Departamento de Prospectiva e Planeamento, Ministério das Finanças)

  • Tiago Sequeira

    (Departamento de Gestão e Economia, Universidade da Beira Interior)

Abstract

Documentam-se as principais características cíclicas de variáveis ligadas ao comércio internacional dos países mais periféricos da União Europeia e comparam-se com as características do conjunto da União, apresentando evidências de que a balança comercial está correlacionada negativamente com movimentos passados e presentes dos termos de troca e positivamente com movimentos passados, dando origem à designada S. Aplica-se o modelo de Backus, Kehoe e Kydland (1994) para verificar a sua aproximação aos dados destes países e avaliar a sua robustez a outras realidades empíricas. Verificaram-se as principais vantagens do modelo já identificadas mas a robustez do modelo a diferenças entre países apenas é verificada numa das variáveis: a balança comercial.

Suggested Citation

  • Alda Rito & Alexandra Ferreira & Tiago Sequeira, 2001. "A Dinâmica dos Termos de Troca e da Balança Comercial: Curva S na Europa?," Working Papers de Gestão, Economia e Marketing (Management, Economics and Marketing Working Papers) 7/2001, Universidade da Beira Interior, Departamento de Gestão e Economia (Portugal).
    • Handle: RePEc:csh:wpecon:7/2001
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