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Why Peace Endures: an Analysis of Post-Conflict Stabilization

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  • Richard Caplan
  • Anke Hoeffler

Abstract

This paper is concerned with explaining why peace endures in countries that have experienced a civil armed conflict. We use a mixed methods approach by evaluating six case studies (Burundi, East Timor, El Salvador, Liberia, Nepal, Sierra Leone) and survival analysis which allows us to consider 205 peace episodes since 1990. We find that it is difficult to explain why peace endures using statistical analysis but there is some indication that conflict termination is important in post-conflict stabilization: negotiated settlements are more likely to break down than military victories. We also consider the impact of UN peacekeeping operations on the duration of peace but find little evidence of their contribution. However, in situations where UN peacekeeping operations are deployed in support of negotiated settlements they do seem to contribute to peace stabilization.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard Caplan & Anke Hoeffler, 2016. "Why Peace Endures: an Analysis of Post-Conflict Stabilization," CSAE Working Paper Series 2016-23, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    • Handle: RePEc:csa:wpaper:2016-23
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    Keywords

    civil war; peace duration; survival analysis; peacekeeping operation;
    All these keywords.

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