L'Impact Des Lois De L'Assurance-Emploi De 1990, 1994 Et 1996 Sur L'Aide Sociale Du Québec

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L'Impact Des Lois De L'Assurance-Emploi De 1990, 1994 Et 1996 Sur L'Aide Sociale Du Québec

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Pierre Fortin () (Center for Economic Fluctuations and Employment, UQAM)

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Pierre Fortin

Abstract

This study investigates the statistical connection between the parameters of the Canadian unemployment insurance system and the rate of social assistance in the Province of Quebec. It is based on an econometric analysis of the annual macroeconomic data of the last two decades and simulations generated from this analysis. The main conclusion is that the major amendments brought to the benefit system by the UI/EI Acts of 1990, 1994 and 1996 will increase the number of welfare recipients in Quebec cumulatively by about 194,000 (based on constant 1997 population), and will raise the overall cost of Quebec social assistance by about $845 million per year (in constant 1997 dollars). By itself, the 1996 EI Act will eventually increase the number of welfare recipients by about 36,000, and cost an additional $157 million to the Quebec Treasury. These impacts will be distributed over the next decade, but 90 % will occur over the next five years. The estimates reported include not only the static impacts of UI/EI amendments with unchanged worker behaviour, which studies based on administrative data can usually capture, but also their dynamic impacts on worker behaviour, and most notably their strong propensity to drop out of the labour force, which administrative data are not suited to deal with.

La présente étude effectue une analyse statistique du lien entre les paramètres du régime canadien d'assurance-chômage et le taux d'assistance sociale au Québec. Les résultats de cette analyse statistique fondée sur les données macroéconomiques annuelles des deux dernières décennies, de même que les simulations qui en sont tirées, indiquent que les trois modifications majeures apportées à l'assurance-chômage par les lois de 1990, 1994 et 1996 auront entraîné à terme une augmentation cumulative d'environ 194 000 personnes à l'aide sociale québécoise (à population constante de 1997) et un gonflement concomitant du coût de la sécurité du revenu d'environ 845 M$ (en dollars constants de 1997). À elle seule, la Loi de l'assurance-emploi de 1996 amènera ultimement environ 36 000 personnes de plus à la sécurité du revenu et coûtera environ 157 M$ au trésor québécois. Ces effets s'échelonneront sur une décennie complète, mais 90 % se réaliseront au cours des cinq prochaines années. Les estimations incorporent non seulement les effets statiques des modifications à l'assurance-chômage (à comportement constant des travailleurs) que peuvent capter les études basées sur les données administratives, mais également leurs effets dynamiques sur le comportement des travailleurs, et tout particulièrement leur décrochage massif du marché du travail, qui est observable depuis 1990.

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Paper provided by CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal in its series Travaux en cours CREFE / CREFE Work in progress with number 1.

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Length: 17 pages
Date of creation: Oct 1997
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cre:crefec:1

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