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Riot Networks and the Tullock Paradox: An application to the Egyptian Arab Spring

Author

Listed:
  • Koenig, Michael
  • Hsieh, Chih-Sheng
  • Deer, Lachlan
  • Vega-Redondo, Fernando

Abstract

We study a dynamic model of collective action in which agents interact and learn through a co-evolving social network. We consider two alternative scenarios that differ on how agents form their expectations: while in a "benchmark" agents are assumed completely informed of the prevailing state, in the other context agents shape their expectations through a combination of local observation and social learning a la DeGroot. We completely characterize the long-run behavior of the system in both cases and show that only in the latter scenario (arguably the most realistic) there is a significant long-run probability of successful collective action within a meaningful time scale. This, we argue, sheds light on the puzzle of how large populations can "achieve" collective action. Finally, we illustrate the empirical potential of the model by showing that it can be efficiently estimated for the so-called Egyptian Arab Spring using large-scale cross-sectional data from Twitter

Suggested Citation

  • Koenig, Michael & Hsieh, Chih-Sheng & Deer, Lachlan & Vega-Redondo, Fernando, 2023. "Riot Networks and the Tullock Paradox: An application to the Egyptian Arab Spring," CEPR Discussion Papers 18093, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:18093
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C72 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Noncooperative Games
    • D71 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Social Choice; Clubs; Committees; Associations
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness

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