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Disasters with Unobservable Duration and Frequency: Intensified Responses and Diminished Preparednes

Author

Listed:
  • Acharya, Viral
  • Johnson, Timothy
  • Zheng, Steven
  • Sundaresan, Suresh

Abstract

We study an economy subject to recurrent disasters when agents have imprecise information about the frequency and duration of the disasters. Uncertainty about the persistence of states can lead to seemingly pessimistic behavior in bad times and optimistic behavior in good times. In a disaster, uncertainty about duration acts as an amplification mechanism. Agents alter their optimal investment and consumption more intensely relative to the full-information benchmark, and the welfare cost of parameter uncertainty can be extreme. However, in advance of a disaster, uncertainty about the arrival rate can be welfare-increasing and agents exhibit diminished preparedness: they optimally invest less in mitigation than under full information and pay less for insurance against the next disaster

Suggested Citation

  • Acharya, Viral & Johnson, Timothy & Zheng, Steven & Sundaresan, Suresh, 2023. "Disasters with Unobservable Duration and Frequency: Intensified Responses and Diminished Preparednes," CEPR Discussion Papers 18026, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:18026
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Rare disasters; Parameter uncertainty; Mitigation; Welfare costs; overreaction;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D6 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics
    • D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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