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Identification of Time-Inconsistent Models: The Case of Insecticide Treated Nets

Author

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  • Tarozzi, Alessandro
  • Mahajan, Aprajit
  • Michel, Christian

Abstract

Time-inconsistency may play a central role in explaining inter-temporal behavior, particularly among poor households. However, little is known about the distribution of time-inconsistent agents, and time-preference parameters are typically not identified in standard dynamic choice models. We formulate a dynamic discrete choice model in an unobservedly heterogeneous population of possibly time-inconsistent agents. We provide conditions under which all population type probabilities and preferences for both time-consistent and sophisticated agents are point-identified and sharp set-identification results for \naive and partially sophisticated agents. Estimating the model using data from a health intervention providing insecticide treated nets (ITNs) in rural Orissa, India, we find that a little over two-thirds of our sample comprises time-inconsistent agents and that both sophisticated and naiive agents are considerably present-biased. Counterfactuals show that the under-investment in ITNs attributable to present-bias leads to substantial costs that are about five times the price of an ITN.

Suggested Citation

  • Tarozzi, Alessandro & Mahajan, Aprajit & Michel, Christian, 2023. "Identification of Time-Inconsistent Models: The Case of Insecticide Treated Nets," CEPR Discussion Papers 17888, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:17888
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Time inconsistency; Partial identification; Mixture model; Expectations; Bednets; Dynamic discrete choice;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I1 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health
    • I3 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty
    • D9 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics

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