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A Fiscal Theory of Trend Inflation

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Listed:
  • Bianchi, Francesco
  • Faccini, Renato
  • Melosi, Leonardo

Abstract

We develop a new class of general equilibrium models with partially unfunded debt to propose a fiscal theory of trend inflation. In response to business cycle shocks, the monetary authority controls inflation, and the fiscal authority stabilizes debt. However, the central bank accommodates unfunded fiscal shocks, causing persistent movements in inflation, output, and real interest rates. In an estimated quantitative model, fiscal trend inflation accounts for the bulk of inflation dynamics. As external validation, we show that the model predicts the post-pandemic increase in inflation. Unfunded fiscal shocks sustain the recovery and cause an increase in trend inflation that counteracts deflationary non-policy shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Bianchi, Francesco & Faccini, Renato & Melosi, Leonardo, 2022. "A Fiscal Theory of Trend Inflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 17690, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:17690
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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