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Exorbitant Privilege Gained and Lost: Fiscal Implications

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  • Van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn
  • Chen, Zefeng
  • Jiang, Zhengyang
  • Lustig, Hanno
  • Xiaolan, Mindy

Abstract

We study three centuries of U.K. fiscal history. Before WW-I, when the U.K. dominated global bond markets, the U.K.'s government debt was not always fully backed by its future surpluses, even after accounting for the seigniorage revenue from convenience yields. As predicted by theories of safe asset determination, investors concentrate extra fiscal capacity in a single country, the global safe asset supplier, based on relative macro fundamentals, and its debt growth may temporarily outstrip what is warranted by its own macro fundamentals. After the relative deterioration in U.K. fundamentals, due to the run-up in debt during WW-I and WW-II, bond investors focused exclusively on the U.K's own macro fundamentals. Since then the U.K. debt has been fully backed by surpluses.

Suggested Citation

  • Van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn & Chen, Zefeng & Jiang, Zhengyang & Lustig, Hanno & Xiaolan, Mindy, 2022. "Exorbitant Privilege Gained and Lost: Fiscal Implications," CEPR Discussion Papers 17340, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:17340
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    Cited by:

    1. Korevaar, Matthijs, 2023. "Reaching for yield and the housing market: Evidence from 18th-century Amsterdam," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(3), pages 273-296.
    2. Thomas M. Eisenbach & Gregory Phelan, 2022. "Fragility of Safe Asset Markets," Staff Reports 1026, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal policy;

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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