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Will Artificial Intelligence Replace Computational Economists Any Time Soon?

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  • Maliar, Serguei
  • Winant, Pablo

Abstract

Artificial intelligence (AI) has impressive applications in many fields (speech recognition, computer vision, etc.). This paper demonstrates that AI can be also used to analyze complex and high-dimensional dynamic economic models. We show how to convert three fundamental objects of economic dynamics -- lifetime reward, Bellman equation and Euler equation -- into objective functions suitable for deep learning (DL). We introduce all-in-one integration technique that makes the stochastic gradient unbiased for the constructed objective functions. We show how to use neural networks to deal with multicollinearity and perform model reduction in Krusell and Smith's (1998) model in which decision functions depend on thousands of state variables -- we literally feed distributions into neural networks! In our examples, the DL method was reliable, accurate and linearly scalable. Our ubiquitous Python code, built with Dolo and Google TensorFlow platforms, is designed to accommodate a variety of models and applications.

Suggested Citation

  • Maliar, Serguei & Winant, Pablo, 2019. "Will Artificial Intelligence Replace Computational Economists Any Time Soon?," CEPR Discussion Papers 14024, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:14024
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Chase Coleman & Spencer Lyon & Lilia Maliar & Serguei Maliar, 2021. "Matlab, Python, Julia: What to Choose in Economics?," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 58(4), pages 1263-1288, December.
    2. Artem Kuriksha, 2021. "An Economy of Neural Networks: Learning from Heterogeneous Experiences," Papers 2110.11582, arXiv.org.
    3. Maliar, Lilia & Maliar, Serguei, 2022. "Deep learning classification: Modeling discrete labor choice," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    4. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Pablo A. Guerrón-Quintana, 2021. "Estimating DSGE Models: Recent Advances and Future Challenges," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 13(1), pages 229-252, August.
    5. Hui Chen & Antoine Didisheim & Simon Scheidegger, 2021. "Deep Structural Estimation:With an Application to Option Pricing," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'économie 21.14, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, Département d’économie.
    6. Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Ebrahimi Kahou, Mahdi & Perla, Jesse & Sood, Arnav, 2021. "Exploiting Symmetry in High-Dimensional Dynamic Programming," CEPR Discussion Papers 16285, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Jesús Fernández‐Villaverde & Samuel Hurtado & Galo Nuño, 2023. "Financial Frictions and the Wealth Distribution," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 91(3), pages 869-901, May.
    8. Stähler, Nikolai, 2021. "The Impact of Aging and Automation on the Macroeconomy and Inequality," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    9. Harrison, Richard & Waldron, Matt, 2021. "Optimal policy with occasionally binding constraints: piecewise linear solution methods," Bank of England working papers 911, Bank of England.
    10. Hui Chen & Antoine Didisheim & Simon Scheidegger, 2021. "Deep Structural Estimation: With an Application to Option Pricing," Papers 2102.09209, arXiv.org.
    11. Lepetyuk, Vadym & Maliar, Lilia & Maliar, Serguei, 2020. "When the U.S. catches a cold, Canada sneezes: A lower-bound tale told by deep learning," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    12. Rui (Aruhan) Shi, 2021. "Learning from Zero: How to Make Consumption-Saving Decisions in a Stochastic Environment with an AI Algorithm," CESifo Working Paper Series 9255, CESifo.
    13. Rui & Shi, 2021. "Learning from zero: how to make consumption-saving decisions in a stochastic environment with an AI algorithm," Papers 2105.10099, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2022.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Artificial intelligence; Machine learning; Deep learning; Neural network; Stochastic gradient; Dynamic models; Dynamic programming; Bellman equation; Euler equation; Value function;
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