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Confinement et chômage en France

Author

Listed:
  • Malak Kandoussi
  • François Langot

Abstract

Nous développons un modèle d’appariement multisectoriel qui reproduit l’impact du pre-mier confinement sur le chômage français, en tenant compte des impacts contrastés entre divers typesd’emplois. Nous identifions la taille des restrictions sur les ventes qui ont frappées chaque segment dumarché du travail, mais également les recours hétérogènes aux mesures de chômage partiel, mettantainsi en évidence l’impact inégal du confinement. Ces résultats sont obtenu grâce à un modèle originald’appariement intégrant (i) des risques microéconomiques variants dans le temps, (ii) des externalitésde congestion dans le processus de recrutement et (iii) des rigidités de salaires. La persistance généréepar notre modèle, nettement plus importante que dans le modèle de Diamond-Mortensen-Pissaridessuggère qu’un retour au niveau de chômage d’avant la crise pourrait être atteint en 2023 (2024) dansun scénario à une (double) vague, alors que les mesures de chômage partiel permettent de diviser pardeux ces durées d’ajustement.

Suggested Citation

  • Malak Kandoussi & François Langot, 2020. "Confinement et chômage en France," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Docweb) 2005, CEPREMAP.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpm:docweb:2005
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    File URL: http://www.cepremap.fr/depot/docweb/docweb2005.pdf
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; chômage; appariement; hétérogénéité des travaileurs; E24; E32; J64;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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