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The intra-day performance of market timing strategies and trading systems based on Japanese candlesticks

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  • DUVINAGE, Matthieu
  • MAZZA, Paolo
  • PETITJEAN, Mikael

Abstract

We develop market timing strategies and trading systems to test the intra-day predictive power of Japanese candlesticks at the 5-minute interval on the 30 constituents of the DJIA index. Around a third of the candlestick rules outperform the buy-and-hold strategy at the conservative Bonferroni level. After adjusting for trading costs, however, just a few rules remain profitable. When we correct for data snooping by applying the SSPA test on double-or-out market timing strategies, no single candlestick rule beats the buy-and-hold strategy after transaction costs. We also design fully automated trading systems by combining the best-performing candlestick rules. No evidence of out-performance is found after transaction costs. Although Japanese candlesticks can somewhat predict intra-day returns on large US caps, we show that such predictive power is too limited for active portfolio management to outperform the buy-and-hold strategy when luck, risk, and trading costs are correctly measured.
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Suggested Citation

  • DUVINAGE, Matthieu & MAZZA, Paolo & PETITJEAN, Mikael, 2013. "The intra-day performance of market timing strategies and trading systems based on Japanese candlesticks," LIDAM Reprints CORE 2671, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  • Handle: RePEc:cor:louvrp:2671
    Note: In : Quantitative Finance, 13(7) 2013, p. 1059-1070
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    Cited by:

    1. Heinz, Adrian & Jamaloodeen, Mohamed & Saxena, Atul & Pollacia, Lissa, 2021. "Bullish and Bearish Engulfing Japanese Candlestick patterns: A statistical analysis on the S&P 500 index," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 221-244.
    2. Tsung-Hsun Lu & Yung-Ming Shiu, 2016. "Can 1-day candlestick patterns be profitable on the 30 component stocks of the DJIA?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(35), pages 3345-3354, July.
    3. Lu, Tsung-Hsun & Chen, Yi-Chi & Hsu, Yu-Chin, 2015. "Trend definition or holding strategy: What determines the profitability of candlestick charting?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 172-183.
    4. Detollenaere, Benoit & Mazza, Paolo, 2014. "Do Japanese candlesticks help solve the trader’s dilemma?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 386-395.
    5. Batten, Jonathan A. & Lucey, Brian M. & McGroarty, Frank & Peat, Maurice & Urquhart, Andrew, 2018. "Does intraday technical trading have predictive power in precious metal markets?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 102-113.
    6. Paolo Mazza & Mikael Petitjean, 2019. "Testing the effect of technical analysis on market quality and order book dynamics," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(18), pages 1947-1976, April.
    7. Piyapas Tharavanij & Vasan Siraprapasiri & Kittichai Rajchamaha, 2017. "Profitability of Candlestick Charting Patterns in the Stock Exchange of Thailand," SAGE Open, , vol. 7(4), pages 21582440177, October.

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