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El costo de los ciclos económicos en Colombia: una nueva Estimación

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Author Info
Mauricio A. Hernández ()
Munir A. Jalil B. ()
Carlos Esteban Posada ()

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Abstract

Los ciclos económicos colombianos de la segunda mitad del siglo XX implicaron considerables variaciones en los agregados reales de la economía. A partir de un modelo con tecnología de producción AK y una función de producción de bienes de capital que presenta retornos decrecientes para la inversión, se calculó el costo de las fluctuaciones económicas en términos de consumo y bienestar de las familias. Según nuestros resultados, bajo estabilidad económica la tasa de crecimiento de largo plazo del consumo per cápita se habría incrementado entre 0,13 y 0,47 puntos porcentuales, pasando de 1,4% por año, en el escenario fluctuante, a una tasa en el intervalo 1,53% -1,87% anual. De acuerdo con diferentes niveles de la elasticidad intertemporal de sustitución del consumo, la compensación necesaria para hacer que las familias obtuvieran un mismo bienestar bajo los dos escenarios (fluctuante y estable) equivaldría, en promedio, a 4,7% del consumo inicial.

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Paper provided by BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA in its series BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA with number 002478.

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Length: 52
Date of creation: 31 Oct 2005
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Handle: RePEc:col:000094:002478

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Mauricio Avella & Leopoldo Fergusson, . "El Ciclo Económico Enfoques e Ilustraciones Los Ciclos Económicos de Estados Unidos y Colombia," Borradores de Economia 284, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Reis, Ricardo, 2005. "The Time-Series Properties of Aggregate Consumption: Implications for the Costs of Fluctuations," CEPR Discussion Papers 5054, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Franz Hamann, 2002. "Sovereign Risk and Real Business Cycles in a Small Open Economy," International Finance 0212001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Franz Hamann, . "Sovereign Risk and Macroeconomic Fluctuations," Borradores de Economia 225, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
  5. Carlos Esteban Posada & cposadpo@banrep.gov.co, . "Los Ciclos Económicos Colombianos en el Siglo XX," Borradores de Economia 126, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
  6. Luis Eduardo Arango, . "Temporary and Permanent Components of Colombia's Output," Borradores de Economia 096, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
  7. Imrohoruglu, Ayse, 1989. "Cost of Business Cycles with Indivisibilities and Liquidity Constraints," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(6), pages 1364-83, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Martha Misas & María Teresa Ramírez, . "Depressions in the Colombian Economic Growth Durng the XX Century: A Markov Switching Regime Model," Borradores de Economia 340, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Ramey, Garey & Ramey, Valerie A, 1995. "Cross-Country Evidence on the Link between Volatility and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1138-51, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Franz A. Hamman & Alvaro Riascos, . "Ciclos Económicos en una Economía Pequeña y Abierta- Una Aplicación para Colombia," Borradores de Economia 089, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Gadi Barlevy, 2004. "The Cost of Business Cycles under Endogenous Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 964-990, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Carlos Esteban Posada & Camilo Morales J. & Andrés Felipe García, 2007. "¿La inestabilidad frena el crecimiento económico?," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003814, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA. [Downloadable!]
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