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La curva de rendimientos como predictor de expectativas macroeconómicas

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Juan Camilo Rojas ()
Abstract

La búsqueda de información basada en las diferentes herramientas que el mercado ha desarrollado, ha convertido a la curva de rendimientos en una de las más utilizadas. Diferentes autores a nivel internacional se han preocupado por investigar y extraer información, teniendo en cuenta la formación de expectativas de los agentes sobre las tasas de interés, el comportamiento de diferentes variables macroeconómicas como el producto y la inflación. La evidencia encontrada ha sido amplia, aunque no siempre en la misma vía. A nivel nacional, pocos autores se han preocupado por indagar en el comportamiento de la curva de rendimientos como posible herramienta para predecir el comportamiento de variables macroeconómicas. Una posible explicación de esto podría estar en el hecho que las bases de datos de la curva de rendimientos son muy recientes y la calidad de los datos no es la mejor, debido al reciente desarrollo de los mercados financieros en Colombia. Sin embargo, la evidencia que se ha obtenido de esos estudios es valiosa. *********************************************************************************************************** The search of information based on different tools that the financial market have developed, have converted to the term structure in one of the most used. Different authors around the world have tried to obtain information from the term structure to forecast the behavior of many macroeconomic variables like inflation and production. The evidence founded has been wide but opposed, in some cases. On the local literature, few authors has been interesed on investigate the behavior of the term structure like tool for forecast the evolution of local macroeconomic variables. A possible explanation for this apathy can be the recent development of the financial market that do not make possible have long database with high data quality. However the evidence obtained on this works has been valuable.

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Paper provided by UNIVERSIDAD DEL ROSARIO - FACULTAD DE ECONOMÍA in its series BORRADORES DE INVESTIGACIÓN with number 004361.

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Length: 14
Date of creation: 31 Aug 2007
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Handle: RePEc:col:000091:004361

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This page was last updated on 2009-11-16.


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