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Dinámica de la producción industrial e importación de bienes de capital y materias primas: relaciones de largo plazo y ajuste dinámico

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  • Álvaro Hernando Chávez Castro

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    Abstract

    El presente documento se propone estimar y analizar la existencia de una relación de equilibrio de largo plazo entre la producción industrial y la importación de bienes de capital y materias primas para el período enero de 1993 - abril de 2005, que resulta útil para monitorear la dinámica industrial en el corto plazo y las complementariedades que pueden existir entre los factores productivos del mercado interno con el externo. Para tal efecto, se desarrolla un análisis econométrico de la metodología de cointegración con componentes estacionales aplicado a las variables índice de producción real (IPR), importación de bienes de capital e importación de materias primas de la industria colombiana. A partir de un modelo de cointegración estacional se evidencia empíricamente la existencia de una relación de equilibrio de largo plazo entre estas variables durante el período analizado. Adicionalmente, se utiliza el modelo estimado para realizar ejercicios de impulso-respuesta para analizar la trayectoria futura de las variables de interés cuando son afectadas por choques exógenos en el tiempo.*****************************************************************************************************************The present document intends estimating and to analyze the existence of a long term relationship between the industrial production and the import of capital goods and raw materials for the period January of 1993 - April of 2005, that is useful for monitoring the industrial dynamics in the short and long term and the complementarities that can exist among the productive factors of the internal market with the external one. In order to reach this objective, it is developed an econometric analysis of the Co-Integration methodology with seasonal components applied to the index of real production (IPR), import of capital goods and import of raw materials for the Colombian industry. Starting from a model of seasonal Co-Integration it is empiric evidenced the existence of a long run relationship among these variables during the analyzed period. Additionally, the dear pattern is used to carry out impulse - response exercises to analyze the future trajectory of the variables when they are affected by exogenous crashes during the time.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by UNIVERSIDAD DEL ROSARIO in its series BORRADORES DE INVESTIGACIÓN with number 004355.

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    Length: 49
    Date of creation: 30 Nov 2005
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:col:000091:004355

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    Keywords: cointegración estacional; raíz estacional; dinámica industrial; corrección del error; bienes de capital; materias primas.;

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