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India’s Demographic Transition: Boon or Bane? A State-Level Perspective

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  • Utsav Kumar

    (The Conference Board)

Abstract

Age structure and its dynamics are critical in understanding the impact of population growth on a country’s growth prospects. Using state-level data from India, I show that the pace of demographic transition varies across states, and that these differences are likely to be exacerbated over the period 2011-2026. I show that the so-called BIMARU states (Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Uttar Pradesh) are likely to see a continuing increase in the share of the working-age population in total population. The BIMARU states are expected to contribute 58% of the increase in India’s working-age population. The BIMARU states have traditionally been the slow-growing states and have performed poorly on different accounts of social and physical infrastructure. Whether India can turn demographic dividend into a boon or whether the dividend will become a bane will critically depend on the ability of the BIMARU states to exploit the bulge in the working-age population.

Suggested Citation

  • Utsav Kumar, 2010. "India’s Demographic Transition: Boon or Bane? A State-Level Perspective," Economics Program Working Papers 10-03, The Conference Board, Economics Program.
    • Handle: RePEc:cnf:wpaper:1003
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    Cited by:

    1. Monojit Chatterji & Sushil Mohan & Sayantan Ghosh Dastidar, 2015. "Determinants of public education expenditure: evidence from Indian states," International Journal of Education Economics and Development, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 6(1), pages 1-19.
    2. Md zulquar Nain & Sai sailaja Bharatam & Bandi Kamaiah, 2017. "Electricity consumption and NSDP nexus in Indian states: a panel analysis with structural breaks," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 37(3), pages 1581-1601.
    3. Ajit Kumar Singh, 2016. "India’s Demographic Dividend: A Sceptical Look," Indian Journal of Human Development, , vol. 10(1), pages 10-26, April.
    4. Andrzej Kwiatkowski, 2013. "Education investment effects of affirmative action policy. Contest game argument," Dundee Discussion Papers in Economics 279, Economic Studies, University of Dundee.
    5. Utsav Kumar & Arvind Subramanian, 2011. "India's Growth in the 2000s: Four Facts," Working Paper Series WP11-17, Peterson Institute for International Economics.

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