This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

An Analysis of Financial Analysts Optimism in Long-term Growth Forecasts

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Byunghwan Lee
John OBrien
K. Sivaramakrishnan
Abstract

Evidence suggests that long-term EPS growth forecasts of financial analysts are by and large optimistic. In particular, we test whether the Availability Heuristic (Tversky and Kahneman 1973) is descriptive of analysts’ forecasting behavior, and whether this heuristic can help explain the nature of optimism in growth forecasts. The Availability Heuristic predicts differential processing of information about current versus terminal economic conditions. Specifically, analysts’ forecasts will systematically underestimate (overestimate) growth in contraction (expansion) periods. Our results confirm this prediction. We find strong evidence of a negative association between past growth and realized forecast errors which varies across business cycles in a predictable manner. Following Chan et al (2003), we estimate a growth forecasting model, adjusting for the effects of the Availability Heuristic and business cycle. We find that under these conditions analysts’ long-term growth forecasts show significant explanatory power.

Download Info
To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

Publisher Info
Paper provided by Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business in its series GSIA Working Papers with number 2004-07.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML, plain text, BibTeX, RIS (EndNote), ReDIF
Length:
Date of creation: Dec 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cmu:gsiawp:1432379887

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Tepper School of Business, Carnegie Mellon University, 5000 Forbes Avenue, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-3890
Web page: http://www.tepper.cmu.edu/

Order Information:
Web: http://server1.tepper.cmu.edu/gsiadoc/GSIA_WP.asp

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Steve Spear).

Related research
Keywords:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? About 900 archives contribute their bibliographic data to RePEc.

This page was last updated on 2008-10-12.


This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.