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Information Aggregation in Experimental Asset Markets: Traps and Misaligned Beliefs

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Author Info
Noeth, Markus
Camerer, Colin F.
Plott, Charles R.
Webber, Martin

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Abstract

The capacity of markets to aggregate information has been conclusively demonstrated but the limitations of that capacity have still not been fully explored. In this paper, we demonstrate the existence of "information traps". These traps appear to be a sort of equilibrium in which information existing in the market does not become revealed in prices. The foundation for the equilibrium is a pattern of misaligned beliefs in which each person's actions are based upon mistaken beliefs about the information held by others. The mistakes, themselves, have a type of mutual compatibility and cannot become revealed by the price discovery process because individuals have no incentives or resources to adjust. Attempts to probe the nature of the phenomena involved two period markets with a contingent claim instrument, experienced participants, and unlimited short selling opportunities.

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Paper provided by California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences in its series Working Papers with number 1060.

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Date of creation: Apr 1999
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Handle: RePEc:clt:sswopa:1060

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Gilboa Itzhak & Schmeidler David, 1993. "Updating Ambiguous Beliefs," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 33-49, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Anderson, Lisa R & Holt, Charles A, 1997. "Information Cascades in the Laboratory," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(5), pages 847-62, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Copeland, Thomas E & Friedman, Daniel, 1992. "The Market Value of Information: Some Experimental Results," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 65(2), pages 241-66, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Gul, Faruk & Lundholm, Russell, 1995. "Endogenous Timing and the Clustering of Agents' Decisions," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(5), pages 1039-66, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Duxbury, Darren, 1995. " Experimental Asset Markets within Finance," Journal of Economic Surveys, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 9(4), pages 331-71, December.
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  14. O'Brien, John & Srivastava, Sanjay, 1991. " Dynamic Stock Markets with Multiple Assets: An Experimental Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1811-38, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Plott, Charles R & Sunder, Shyam, 1988. "Rational Expectations and the Aggregation of Diverse Information in Laboratory Security Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(5), pages 1085-1118, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. Copeland, Thomas E & Friedman, Daniel, 1991. " Partial Revelation of Information in Experimental Asset Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 265-95, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  24. Plott, Charles R. & Wit, J. & Yang, W. C., 1997. "Parimutuel Betting Markets as Information Aggregation Devises: Experimental Results," Working Papers 986, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences. [Downloadable!]
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  26. Camerer, Colin & Weigelt, Keith, 1991. "Information Mirages in Experimental Asset Markets," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 64(4), pages 463-93, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Helena Veiga & Marc Vorsatz, 2008. "The effect of short-selling of the aggregation of information in an experimental asset market," Statistics and Econometrics Working Papers ws083808, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Estadística y Econometría. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Sander, Harald & Kleimeier, Stefanie, 2006. "Interest Rate Pass-Through In the Common Monetary Area of the SACU Countries," Research Memoranda 023, Maastricht : METEOR, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Martin Barner & Francesco Feri & Charles R. Plott, 2005. "On the microstructure of price determination and information aggregation with sequential and asymmetric information arrival in an experimental asset market," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 73-107, 01. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Helena Veiga & Marc Vorsatz, 2008. "Aggregation and dissemination of information in experimental asset markets in the presence of a manipulator," Statistics and Econometrics Working Papers ws084110, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Estadística y Econometría. [Downloadable!]
  5. Biais, Bruno & Hilton, Denis & Mazurier, Karine & Pouget, Sébastien, 2004. "Judgmental Overconfidence, Self-Monitoring and Trading Performance in an Experimental Financial Market," IDEI Working Papers 259, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Jack Ochs & Li Qi, 2006. "Information Use and Transference," Working Papers 236, University of Pittsburgh, Department of Economics, revised Jan 2006. [Downloadable!]
  7. Barner, Martin & Feri, Francesco & Plott, Charles, 2004. "On the Microstructure of Price Determination and Information Aggregation with Sequential and Asymmetric Information Arrival in an Experimental Asset Market," Working Papers 1204, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences. [Downloadable!]
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