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Croissance economique mondiale : un scenario de reference a l'horizon 2030

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Author Info
Nina Kousnetzoff

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Abstract

Ce papier presente une prevision de croissance economique mondiale en trente zones geographiques pour les annees 2000 a 2030. La prevision a ete effectuee suivant un modele de croissance neo-classique avec capital humain, sauf pour les pays producteurs de petrole, dont la croissance du PIB est determinee par le prix reel du petrole et la croissance du reste du monde. Tout d'abord sont decrits les modeles utilises pour la prevision. Ensuite est presente le scenario de reference, en particulier les hypotheses demographiques et les hypotheses de taux d'investissement en capital physique et humain. Enfin sont discutes les resultats de la prevision, presentes pour 11 grandes regions du monde : croissance du PIB et de la productivite du travail ; niveau du PIB par tete compare a celui des Etats-Unis ; part des regions dans le PIB mondial.

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File URL: http://www.cepii.fr/francgraph/doctravail/pdf/2001/dt01-21.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by CEPII research center in its series Working Papers with number 2001-21.

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Date of creation: Dec 2001
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Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2001-21

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Related research
Keywords: croissance; monde; prevision; long terme;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E13 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Neoclassical
E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation
O41 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
O47 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Measurement of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
O50 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - General

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This page was last updated on 2009-12-17.

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