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COMFORT: A Common Market Factor Non-Gaussian Returns Model

Author

Listed:
  • Marc S. Paolella

    (University of Zurich - Department of Banking and Finance; Swiss Finance Institute)

  • Pawel Polak

    (University of Zurich; Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne - Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne)

Abstract

A new multivariate time series model with various attractive properties is motivated and studied. By extending the CCC model in several ways, it allows for all the primary stylized facts of financial asset returns, including volatility clustering, non-normality (excess kurtosis and asymmetry), and also dynamics in the dependency between assets over time. A fast EM-algorithm is developed for estimation. Each element of the vector return at time t is endowed with a common univariate shock, interpretable as a common market factor. This leads to the new model being a hybrid of GARCH and stochastic volatility, but without the estimation problems associated with the latter, and being applicable in the multivariate setting for potentially large numbers of assets. A feasible technique which allows for multivariate option pricing is presented, along with an empirical illustration.

Suggested Citation

  • Marc S. Paolella & Pawel Polak, 2013. "COMFORT: A Common Market Factor Non-Gaussian Returns Model," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 13-38, Swiss Finance Institute, revised Sep 2014.
    • Handle: RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp1338
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    CCC; Common Jumps; Density Forecasting; EM-Algorithm; Fat Tails; GARCH; Multivariate Asymmetric Variance Gamma Distribution; Multivariate Generalized Hyperbolic Distribution; Multivariate Option Pricing; Stochastic Volatility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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