Extreme-quantile tracking for financial time series
AbstractTime series of financial asset values exhibit well known statistical features such as heavy tails and volatility clustering. Strongly present in some series, nonstationarity is a feature that has been somewhat overlooked. This may however be a highly relevant feature when estimating extreme quantiles (VaR) for such series. We propose a nonparametric extension of the classical Peaks-Over-Threshold method to fit the time varying volatility in situations where the stationarity assumption is strongly violated by erratic changes of regime. A back testing study for the UBS share price over the subprime crisis reveals that our approach provides better extreme-quantile (VaR) estimates than methods that ignore nonstationarity.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Swiss Finance Institute in its series Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series with number 11-27.
Length: 34 pages
Date of creation:
Date of revision:
Bayesian analysis; Markov random field; Financial time series; Generalized Pareto distribution; Peaks-Over-Threshold; Regime Switching; Statistics of extremes; Value-at-Risk.;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
- C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
- G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
- G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
You can help add them by filling out this form.
reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Access and download statisticsgeneral information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Marilyn Barja).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.