The war puzzle: contradictory effects of international conflicts on stock markets
AbstractWe study a number of large international military con flicts since World War II where we establish a news analysis as a proxy for the estimated likelihood that the con ict will result in a war. We find that in cases when there is a pre-war phase, an increase in the war likelihood tends to decrease stock prices, but the ultimate outbreak of a war increases them. In cases when a war starts as a surprise, the outbreak of a war decreases stock prices. We show that this paradox cannot be explained by uncertainty about investment decisions, nor by the expectation about a quick end of the war or ambiguity aversion. A connection of this puzzling phenomenon to mean-variance preferences of investors is suggested.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Swiss Finance Institute in its series Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series with number 11-21.
Length: 30 pages
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International confl icts; war; stock market reaction; news analysis; behavioral finance.;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
- G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
- G19 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Other
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