Modeling Multivariate Extreme Events Using Self-Exciting Point Processes
AbstractWe propose a new model that can capture the typical features of multivariate extreme events observed in financial time series, namely clustering behavior in magnitudes and arrival times of multivariate extreme events, and time-varying dependence. The model is developed in the framework of the peaks-over-threshold approach in extreme value theory and relies on a Poisson process with self-exciting intensity. We discuss the properties of the model, treat its estimation, deal with testing goodness-of-fit, and develop a simulation algorithm. The model is applied to return data of two stock markets and four major European banks.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Cologne Graduate School in Management, Economics and Social Sciences in its series Cologne Graduate School Working Paper Series with number 03-06.
Date of creation: 27 Jun 2012
Date of revision: 20 Jun 2013
Time Series; Peaks Over Threshold; Hawkes Processes; Extreme Value Theory;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
- C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
- G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2012-07-23 (All new papers)
- NEP-BAN-2012-07-23 (Banking)
- NEP-ECM-2012-07-23 (Econometrics)
- NEP-RMG-2012-07-23 (Risk Management)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Bowsher, Clive G., 2007.
"Modelling security market events in continuous time: Intensity based, multivariate point process models,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 876-912, December.
- Clive G. Bowsher, 2005. "Modelling Security Market Events in Continuous Time: Intensity Based, Multivariate Point Process Models," Economics Papers 2005-W26, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
- Clive G. Bowsher, 2003. "Modelling Security Market Events in Continuous Time: Intensity Based, Multivariate Point Process Models," Economics Papers 2003-W03, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
- Clive Bowsher, 2002. "Modelling Security Market Events in Continuous Time: Intensity based, Multivariate Point Process Models," Economics Papers 2002-W22, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
- Yacine Aït-Sahalia & Julio Cacho-Diaz & Roger J.A. Laeven, 2010. "Modeling Financial Contagion Using Mutually Exciting Jump Processes," NBER Working Papers 15850, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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