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Once More into the Breach: Economic Growth and Integration

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  • Andrew Warner

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Abstract

This paper re-examines the evidence linking poor growth during the era of import substituting industrialization with trade restrictions. Recent work, notably Rodriguez and Rodrik (2000), asserts that all the evidence is fragile, implying that economists who believe that trade restrictions played a role in this poor performance do so largely on faith. This paper argues that this criticism ignores crucial evidence and tests regression specifications that are either not relevant for the question or are bound to have low statistical power. After revising and updating measures of trade openness used in Sachs and Warner (1995), the weight of the evidence argues that trade restrictions were indeed harmful to growth during this period. While there is certainly room for debate about how best to use the available data on trade restrictions, a large number of variants yield strong and consistent results. Furthermore, although some assert that it is impossible to empirically distinguish measures of trade restriction from other policies or institutions, the findings are not diminished even after controlling for many alternative economic policies or institutions.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Center for Global Development in its series Working Papers with number 34.

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Length: 55 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cgd:wpaper:34

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Web page: http://www.cgdev.org

Related research

Keywords: import substitution; trade; economic growth; integration;

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Cited by:
  1. Salinas, Gonzalo & Aksoy, Ataman, 2006. "Growth before and after trade liberalization," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4062, The World Bank.
  2. Antoni Estevadeordal & Alan M. Taylor, 2008. "Is the Washington Consensus Dead? Growth, Openness, and the Great Liberalization, 1970s-2000s," NBER Working Papers 14264, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Giavazzi, Francesco & Tabellini, Guido, 2005. "Economic and political liberalizations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(7), pages 1297-1330, October.
  4. Foellmi, Reto & Oechslin, Manuel, 2012. "Globalization and Productivity in the Developing World," Economics Working Paper Series 1203, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science.
  5. Bhattacharyya, Sambit, 2012. "Trade liberalization and institutional development," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 253-269.
  6. Bardhan, Pranab, 2006. "Globalization and rural poverty," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 34(8), pages 1393-1404, August.
  7. Pranab Bardhan, 2006. "Globalization, Inequality, and Poverty," IDB Publications 9126, Inter-American Development Bank.
  8. Padamja Khandelwal, 2004. "Comesa and Sadc," IMF Working Papers 04/227, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Sambit Bhattacharyya & Steve Dowrick & Jane Golley, 2008. "Institutions And Trade: Competitors Or Complements In Economic Development?," Departmental Working Papers 2008-12, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.

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