IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cep/cepops/60.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Projecting UK net migration

Author

Listed:
  • Tessa Hall
  • Alan Manning
  • Madeleine Sumption

Abstract

Predicting migration is notoriously difficult but unavoidable if, for example, we want projections of future population. We present a new 'bottom-up' approach to projecting net migration, whereby emigration is estimated separately for each migrant category as a function of past immigration levels and the length of stay of migrants. This approach is applied to the UK context to project net migration to 2030. Based on the assumptions that (i) roughly current immigration levels continue, where this is plausible; and (ii) migrants stay in the UK at the same rate that Migrant Journey data has suggested they have done in the past, the model suggests that net migration will fall over the coming years. The largest part of this fall is due to emigration rising: high immigration today leads to higher emigration in future and hence a mechanical decline in net migration.

Suggested Citation

  • Tessa Hall & Alan Manning & Madeleine Sumption, 2023. "Projecting UK net migration," CEP Occasional Papers 60, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    • Handle: RePEc:cep:cepops:60
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/occasional/op060.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Keywords

    migration; demographics; UK policy;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cep:cepops:60. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/publications/occasional-papers/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.