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On the existence of the true value of a probability. Part I: Determinism versus aleatorism

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  • Alberto H. Landro
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    Abstract

    Objetivist models are based on the deterministic hypothesis that postulates the existence of probability, which is cognoscible only in an asymptotic manner. On the other hand, subjectivist models consider the aleatoristic hypothesis according to which there is no truth about probability. However, both hypotheses may only be compared through stochastic models, which are not strictly falsifiable. Therefore, neither the hypothesis stating the existence of a true value regarding the probability of occurrence of an event nor de Finetti´s postulate which sustains that “probability does not exist” are strictly verifiable.

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    File URL: http://www.ucema.edu.ar/publicaciones/download/documentos/457.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Universidad del CEMA in its series CEMA Working Papers: Serie Documentos de Trabajo. with number 457.

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    Length: pages 19
    Date of creation: Jul 2011
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:cem:doctra:457

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