A economia da política reabilitada: a formação e as controvérsias da teoria dos ciclos político-econômicos

Research in political business cycles is part of a larger program related to the economic analysis of politics with a macroeconomic focus, named New Political Macroeconomics. This article explores the historical evolution of the political business cycle literature, starting from the early writers on the topic (Kalecki, 1943; Åkerman, 1947). It then highlights the importance of Nordhaus (1975) for the theory. Elaborating the first theoretical model with empirical verification for the political business cycle, Nordhaus transformed a problem that was usually seen as microeconomic into a macroeconomic issue. Research flourished for a while, but the model underwent criticism because of its assumptions about voters, lack of definitive empirical verification, and because it did not conform to the tenets of rational expectations, thus causing interest in PBC models to wane. The latter went through a comeback after adapting to rational expectations (Rogoff, Siebert, 1988), and the formalization of conditional political business cycle models “solved” the problem of empirical verification, by arguing that political business cycles need specific conditions to happen. The paper concludes by reaffirming the importance of political business cycle models in creating a tradition that allowed the analysis with macroeconomic tools the issues of collective decision-making, previously a domain solely microeconomic.