Proposição e estimação de uma Curva de Phillips estruturalista pós-keynesiana

Using as reference the Extended Post-Keynesian Model (EPKM) – canonical model from this approach to treatment of the relationship between inflation, output dynamic and economic policy – is developed the Structuralist Phillips Curve (CPE), an inflationary equation based on markup rule that establishes inflation as a dynamic path possessing partial inertia and that varies with the output gap, the distributive conflict and the external relations. The CPE is estimated in panels of countries after defining output gap by a formulation where trends are linearly divided into parts, being obtained, as expected, a parameter of past inflation with a value lesser than unity and where the parameters of output gap, distributive conflict and external relations are relevant in most groups of countries and periods. The estimates successfully support the proposed approach on inflation determinants, confirming the relevance of partial inertia theoretical rule of inflationary process and being established the distributive conflict and the external relations as central pivots of this dynamic.