Os possíveis incentivos financeiros à aposentadoria da regra 85/95 progressiva

Social Security has gained importance in the political economy agenda of Brazil in recent years. Today, exists in the country, with the new Rule 85/95 Progressive, a structure of incentives for early retirement, such as not requiring a minimum age and the possibility to retire and continue working, which makes the discussion on the topic even more relevant. This paper analyzes whether the Rule 85/95 Progressive tends to increase or decrease the incentives for retirement? We estimate the incentives for retirement based on the measures proposed by Gruber and Wise (1999) using data from the 2013 National Survey by Household Sample (PNAD). The results indicate that the new rule tends to increase incentives to retirement, since retirement benefits are not well adjusted for an additional year of work. On the other hand, the average age of retirement also tends to rise, however, not substantially, and, in this case, the increase in the average age will be accompanied by a massive increase in social security costs. The 85/95 Rule progressive it is, therefore, a new device that will have an impact to the General Social Security System (RGPS), which need to be highlighted because it is necessary to ensure the maintenance of the system consisting of the principal or sole source of increasing income of millions of Brazilian elderly.