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Previsões a partir do Modelo Epidemiológico SIR para os Casos de Infecção pelo COVID-19: uma aplicação para os estados brasileiros

Author

Listed:
  • Rafael S. M. Ribeiro

    (Cedeplar-UFMG)

Abstract

O objetivo desta nota técnica é realizar um exercício aplicando o modelo epidemiológico S-I-R aos casos confirmados de infecção pelo COVID-19 para os estados do Brasil. Com isso, tentamos prever quando será a época aproximadamente do pico de casos para cada um dos estados em questão. Além disso, calculamos também a taxa de reprodução que é o número médio de pessoas saudáveis que cada pessoa infectada contamina.

Suggested Citation

  • Rafael S. M. Ribeiro, 2020. "Previsões a partir do Modelo Epidemiológico SIR para os Casos de Infecção pelo COVID-19: uma aplicação para os estados brasileiros," Notas Técnicas Cedeplar-UFMG 005, Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdp:tecnot:tn005
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    File URL: https://www.cedeplar.ufmg.br/component/phocadownload/category/18-noticias?download=1292:previsoes-do-modelo-sir
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    Citations

    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Notas técnicas dos grupos de pesquisa do Cedeplar-UFMG sobre a Covid-19
      by Hugo da Gama Cerqueira in Meu gabinete de curiosidades on 2020-04-11 14:43:00

    More about this item

    Keywords

    corona virus; COVID-19; Modelo SIR; Estados; Brasil;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

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