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Group Polarization in a Model of Information Aggregation

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  • Roux, Nicolas
  • Sobel, Joel

Abstract

Experiments identify the empirical regularity that groups tend to make decisions that are more extreme, but in the same direction as the tendency of individual members of the group. We present a model of information aggregation consistent with these findings. We assume individuals and groups are rational decision makers facing monotone statistical decision problems where groups and individuals have common preferences, but groups have superior information. We provide conditions under which the distribution of the optimal actions of the group is more variable than the distribution of actions taken by individuals.

Suggested Citation

  • Roux, Nicolas & Sobel, Joel, 2015. "Group Polarization in a Model of Information Aggregation," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt64g6x4t0, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdl:ucsdec:qt64g6x4t0
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    Cited by:

    1. Xiu Chen & Fuhai Hong & Xiaojian Zhao, 2020. "Concentration and variability of forecasts in artificial investment games: an online experiment on WeChat," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 23(3), pages 815-847, September.
    2. Athey, Susan & Levin, Jonathan, 2018. "The value of information in monotone decision problems," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 101-116.
    3. Gershoni, Naomi, 2021. "Individual vs. group decision-making: Evidence from a natural experiment in arbitration proceedings," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 201(C).
    4. Conde-Ruiz, J. Ignacio & Ganuza, Juan José & Profeta, Paola, 2022. "Statistical discrimination and committees," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    5. Amir, Rabah & Lazzati, Natalia, 2016. "Endogenous information acquisition in Bayesian games with strategic complementarities," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 684-698.
    6. Ockenfels, Axel & Sliwka, Dirk & Werner, Peter, 2024. "Multi-Rater Performance Evaluations and Incentives," IZA Discussion Papers 16812, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    7. David Dillenberger & Colin Raymond, 2016. "Group-Shift and the Consensus Effect, Second Version," PIER Working Paper Archive 16-015, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 30 Sep 2016.
    8. Dillenberger, David & Raymond, Collin, 2019. "On the consensus effect," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 384-416.
    9. Honryo, Takakazu, 2018. "Risky shifts as multi-sender signaling," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 273-287.

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    Keywords

    Economics;

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