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Transportation and its Infrastructure

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  • Ribeiro, Suzana K
  • Kobayashi, Shigeki
  • Beuthe, Michel
  • Gasca, Jorge
  • Greene, David
  • Lee, David S.
  • Muromachi, Yasunori
  • Newton, Peter J.
  • Plotkin, Steven
  • Sperling, Daniel
  • Wit, Ron
  • Zhou, Peter J
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    Abstract

    Transport activity, a key component of economic development and human welfare, is increasing around the world as economies grow. For most policymakers, the most pressing problems associated with this increasing transport activity are traffic fatalities and injuries, congestion, air pollution and petroleum dependence. These problems are especially acute in the most rapidly growing economies of the developing world. Mitigating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions can take its place among these other transport priorities by emphasizing synergies and co-benefits (high agreement, much evidence). Transport predominantly relies on a single fossil resource, petroleum that supplies 95% of the total energy used by world transport. In 2004, transport was responsible for 23% of world energy-related GHG emissions with about three quarters coming from road vehicles. Over the past decade, transport’s GHG emissions have increased at a faster rate than any other energy using sector (high agreement, much evidence). Transport activity will continue to increase in the future as economic growth fuels transport demand and the availability of transport drives development, by facilitating specialization and trade. The majority of the world’s population still does not have access to personal vehicles and many do not have access to any form of motorized transport. However, this situation is rapidly changing. Freight transport has been growing even more rapidly than passenger transport and is expected to continue to do so in the future. Urban freight movements are predominantly by truck, while international freight is dominated by ocean shipping. The modal distribution of intercity freight varies greatly across regions. For example, in the United States, all modes participate substantially, while in Europe, trucking has a higher market share (in tkm1), compared to rail (high agreement, much evidence). Transport activity is expected to grow robustly over the next several decades. Unless there is a major shift away from current patterns of energy use, world transport energy use is projected to increase at the rate of about 2% per year, with the highest rates of growth in the emerging economies, and total transport energy use and carbon emissions is projected to be about 80% higher than current levels by 2030 (medium agreement, medium evidence). There is an ongoing debate about whether the world is nearing a peak in conventional oil production that will require a significant and rapid transition to alternative energy resources. There is no shortage of alternative energy sources, including oil sands, shale oil, coal-to-liquids, biofuels, electricity and hydrogen. Among these alternatives, unconventional fossil carbon resources would produce less expensive fuels mostcompatible with the existing transport infrastructure, but lead to increased carbon emissions (medium agreement, medium evidence). In 2004, the transport sector produced 6.3 GtCO2 emissions (23% of world energy-related CO2 emissions) and its growth rate is highest among the end-user sectors. Road transport currently accounts for 74% of total transport CO2 emissions. The share of non-OECD countries is 36% now and will increase rapidly to 46% by 2030 if current trends continue (high agreement, much evidence). The transport sector also contributes small amounts of CH4 and N2O emissions from fuel combustion and F-gases (fluorinated gases) from vehicle air conditioning. CH4 emissions are between 0.1–0.3% of total transport GHG emissions, N2O between 2.0 and 2.8% (based on US, Japan and EU data only). Worldwide emissions of F-gases (CFC-12+HFC- 134a+HCFC-22) in 2003 were 0.3–0.6 GtCO2-eq, about 5–10% of total transport CO2 emissions (medium agreement, limited evidence). When assessing mitigation options it is important to consider their lifecycle GHG impacts. This is especially true for choices among alternative fuels but also applies to a lesser degree to the manufacturing processes and materials composition of advanced technologies. Electricity and hydrogen can offer the opportunity to ‘de-carbonise’ the transport energy system although the actual full cycle carbon reduction depends upon the way electricity and hydrogen are produced. Assessment of mitigation potential in the transport sector through the year 2030 is uncertain because the potential depends on: • World oil supply and its impact on fuel prices and the economic viability of alternative transport fuels; • R&D outcomes in several areas, especially biomass fuel production technology and its sustainability in massive scale, as well as battery longevity, cost and specific energy. Another problem for a credible assessment is the limited number and scope of available studies of mitigation potential and cost. Improving energy efficiency offers an excellent opportunity for transport GHG mitigation through 2030. Carbon emissions from ‘new’ light-duty road vehicles could be reduced by up to 50% by 2030 compared to currently produced models, assuming continued technological advances and strong policies to ensure that technologies are applied to increasing fuel economy rather than spent on increased horsepower and vehicle mass. Material substitution and advanced design could reduce the weight of light-duty vehicles by 20–30%. Since the TAR (Third Assessment Report), energy efficiency of road vehicles has improved by the market success of cleaner directinjection turbocharged (TDI) diesels and the continued market penetration of numerous incremental efficiency technologies. Hybrid vehicles have also played a role, though their market penetration is currently small. Reductions in drag coefficients of 20–50% seem achievable for heavy intercity trucks, with consequent reductions in fuel use of 10–20%. Hybrid technology is applicable to trucks and buses that operate in urban environments, and the diesel engine’s efficiency may be improved by 10% or more. Prospects for mitigation are strongly dependent on the advancement of transport technologies. There are also important opportunities to increase the operating efficiencies of transport vehicles. Road vehicle efficiency might be improved by 5–20% through strategies such as eco-driving styles, increased load factors, improved maintenance, in-vehicle technological aids, more efficient replacement tyres, reduced idling and better traffic management and route choice (medium agreement, medium evidence). The total mitigation potential in 2030 of the energy efficiency options applied to light duty vehicles would be around 0.7–0.8 GtCO2-eq in 2030 at costs

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis in its series Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series with number qt98m5t1rv.

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    Date of creation: 01 Dec 2007
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    Handle: RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt98m5t1rv

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    Keywords: UCD-ITS-RP-07-39; Engineering;

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    Cited by:
    1. Valentina Bosetti & Thomas Longden, 2012. "Light Duty Vehicle Transportation and Global Climate Policy: The Importance of Electric Drive Vehicles," Working Papers 2012.11, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    2. Maffii, Silvia & Parolin, Riccardo & Ponti, Marco, 2010. "Social marginal cost pricing and second best alternatives in partnerships for transport infrastructures," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 23-28.
    3. Santos, Georgina & Behrendt, Hannah & Maconi, Laura & Shirvani, Tara & Teytelboym, Alexander, 2010. "Part I: Externalities and economic policies in road transport," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 2-45.
    4. Sgouridis, Sgouris & Bonnefoy, Philippe A. & Hansman, R. John, 2011. "Air transportation in a carbon constrained world: Long-term dynamics of policies and strategies for mitigating the carbon footprint of commercial aviation," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 45(10), pages 1077-1091.
    5. Goodman, Anna & Panter, Jenna & Sharp, Stephen J. & Ogilvie, David, 2013. "Effectiveness and equity impacts of town-wide cycling initiatives in England: A longitudinal, controlled natural experimental study," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 228-237.
    6. Kyle, Page & Kim, Son H., 2011. "Long-term implications of alternative light-duty vehicle technologies for global greenhouse gas emissions and primary energy demands," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 3012-3024, May.
    7. Felix Creutzig & Emily McGlynn & Jan Minx & Ottmar Edenhofer, 2010. "Climate policies for road transport revisited (I): Evaluation of the current framework," Working Papers, Department of Climate Change Economics, TU Berlin 1, Department of Climate Change Economics, TU Berlin, revised Dec 2010.
    8. Curtis, Fred, 2009. "Peak globalization: Climate change, oil depletion and global trade," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 427-434, December.
    9. Sheinbaum-Pardo, Claudia & Chávez-Baeza, Carlos, 2011. "Fuel economy of new passenger cars in Mexico: Trends from 1988 to 2008 and prospects," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(12), pages 8153-8162.
    10. Mok, Ken L. & Han, Seung H. & Choi, Seokjin, 2014. "The implementation of clean development mechanism (CDM) in the construction and built environment industry," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 512-523.
    11. Santos, Georgina & Behrendt, Hannah & Teytelboym, Alexander, 2010. "Part II: Policy instruments for sustainable road transport," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 46-91.
    12. Firnkorn, Jörg & Müller, Martin, 2011. "What will be the environmental effects of new free-floating car-sharing systems? The case of car2go in Ulm," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(8), pages 1519-1528, June.
    13. McCollum, David & Yang, Christopher, 2009. "Achieving deep reductions in US transport greenhouse gas emissions: Scenario analysis and policy implications," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5580-5596, December.
    14. Mattila, Tuomas & Antikainen, Riina, 2011. "Backcasting sustainable freight transport systems for Europe in 2050," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1241-1248, March.
    15. Pentelow, Laurel & Scott, Daniel J., 2011. "Aviation’s inclusion in international climate policy regimes: Implications for the Caribbean tourism industry," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 199-205.
    16. Schwanen, Tim & Banister, David & Anable, Jillian, 2011. "Scientific research about climate change mitigation in transport: A critical review," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 45(10), pages 993-1006.
    17. Moriarty, Patrick & Honnery, Damon, 2008. "Mitigating greenhouse: Limited time, limited options," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1251-1256, April.
    18. Sanyé-Mengual, Esther & Romanos, Héctor & Molina, Catalina & Oliver, M. Antònia & Ruiz, Núria & Pérez, Marta & Carreras, David & Boada, Martí & Garcia-Orellana, Jordi & Duch, Jordi & Rieradevall, Joan, 2014. "Environmental and self-sufficiency assessment of the energy metabolism of tourist hubs on Mediterranean Islands: The case of Menorca (Spain)," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 377-387.
    19. Macmillan, A.K. & Hosking, J. & L. Connor, J. & Bullen, C. & Ameratunga, S., 2013. "A Cochrane systematic review of the effectiveness of organisational travel plans: Improving the evidence base for transport decisions," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 249-256.
    20. World Bank, 2011. "Brazil Low Carbon Case Study : Transport," World Bank Other Operational Studies 12798, The World Bank.
    21. Streimikiene, Dalia & Sliogeriene, Jurate, 2011. "Comparative assessment of future motor vehicles under various climate change mitigation scenarios," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 15(8), pages 3833-3838.
    22. O' Mahony, Tadhg & Zhou, P. & Sweeney, John, 2013. "Integrated scenarios of energy-related CO2 emissions in Ireland: A multi-sectoral analysis to 2020," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 385-397.

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