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Termes de l'échange : de la baisse tendancielle au chaos

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  • Catherine ARAUJO BONJEAN

    (Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches sur le Développement International(CERDI))

Abstract

In this paper a nonlinear model of commodity prices with endogenous price fluctuations is opposed to the more traditional hypothesis of stochastic price fluctuations around a deterministic trend. After recalling the evolution of world prices of the main agricultural commodities exported by developing countries, the Prebish-Singer hypothesis is assessed through the estimation of linear stochastic models. Then it is shown, using tests of nonlinearity, that series which seem to be trend stationary can in fact be generated by a nonlinear process. These results lead us to elaborate a simple model of decision under risk, which depending of the nature of expections, rational or not, and the producer risk aversion, can generate nonlinear supply and price functions leading to chaos for some values of the parameters.

Suggested Citation

  • Catherine ARAUJO BONJEAN, 1997. "Termes de l'échange : de la baisse tendancielle au chaos," Working Papers 199701, CERDI.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdi:wpaper:40
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    Cited by:

    1. Catherine Araujo Bonjean & Jean-François Brun, 2008. "Pouvoir de marché dans la filière cacao : l'hypothèse de Prebisch – Singer revisitée," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 0(5), pages 133-144.
    2. Catherine Araujo Bonjean, 1998. "Les marchés mondiaux des produits agricoles sont-ils efficients ?," Économie rurale, Programme National Persée, vol. 243(1), pages 8-15.
    3. Catherine Araujo-Bonjean & Jean-François Brun, 2001. "Les politiques de stabilisation des prix du coton en Afrique de la zone franc sont-elles condamnées?," Économie rurale, Programme National Persée, vol. 266(1), pages 80-90.

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