Estimating the Prevalence and Incidence of Dysphagia in New Zealand

The number of New Zealanders living with oropharyngeal dysphagia has not been well researched and therefore is largely unknown. This paper estimates the prevalence and incidence of dysphagia in the New Zealand general population and uses these estimates to project the future number and demographic composition of individuals affected by dysphagia. Prevalence and incidence rates of dysphagia within medical conditions that cause dysphagia were sourced from existing literature. Median projected population estimates from Statistics New Zealand, by age and ethnicity, were used to calculate dysphagia projections up to 2073. In 2020, 1.5% of the general New Zealand population were estimated to be living with the effects of dysphagia while 9,300 new individuals developed the condition. By 2073, the prevalence of dysphagia is projected to increase to 2.6% and the number of individuals newly diagnosed annually to increase to 24,500. Results indicate a significant number of New Zealanders are impacted by dysphagia. This number is shown to dramatically increase in the future, mostly due to population ageing, indicating an increased burden on the New Zealand population and healthcare system. This work provides a useful starting point to assess future healthcare resource demands associated with dysphagia, assisting with healthcare provision planning. Projections can also be useful to assess the cost-effectiveness of new medical interventions designed to aid in the treatment or management of dysphagic patients.