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Effectiveness of Foreign Exchange Interventions: Evidence from New Zealand

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Abstract

This paper examines the effectiveness of explicit and implicit foreign exchange (FX) interventions in New Zealand: one secret spot market intervention and two implicit interventions – a regular Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) and an unexpected oral intervention by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) governor addressing the New Zealand Dollar (NZD). By applying a synthetic control methodology to a unique dataset of RBNZ interventions, we construct a counterfactual to estimate their effect. The results indicate that the actual intervention and the MPS release were ineffective in moving the NZD. However, the speech depreciated the NZD by 1.12%, although the effect was small and short lived. Our findings suggest that FX interventions, explicit or implicit, are a weak policy tool to affect the exchange rate in New Zealand.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew Besuyen & Tom Coupé & Kuntal K. Das, 2021. "Effectiveness of Foreign Exchange Interventions: Evidence from New Zealand," Working Papers in Economics 21/01, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
    • Handle: RePEc:cbt:econwp:21/01
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    File URL: https://repec.canterbury.ac.nz/cbt/econwp/2101.pdf
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    Keywords

    Foreign exchange intervention; Explicit intervention; Implicit intervention; Synthetic control; Effectiveness;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C31 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions; Social Interaction Models
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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