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A Simplified Model of How Macroeconomic Changes Affect the Federal Budget: Working Paper 2020-01

Author

Listed:
  • Nathaniel Frentz
  • Jaeger Nelson
  • Dan Ready
  • John Seliski

Abstract

The budgetary feedback model (BFM) is one tool that CBO uses to estimate how changes in the macroeconomy might affect the federal budget. The BFM approximates the budgetary feedback that would be arrived at by using a wider array of CBO's budgetary models and was built to provide a unified framework to quantify changes in projected revenues and outlays relative to CBO's baseline budget projections. This paper describes how the BFM is constructed, how it is used in CBO's dynamic analyses, and the model's limitations.

Suggested Citation

  • Nathaniel Frentz & Jaeger Nelson & Dan Ready & John Seliski, 2020. "A Simplified Model of How Macroeconomic Changes Affect the Federal Budget: Working Paper 2020-01," Working Papers 55884, Congressional Budget Office.
    • Handle: RePEc:cbo:wpaper:55884
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    File URL: https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2020-01/55884-CBO-BFM-working-paper.pdf
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • H20 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - General
    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General
    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt

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