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How Changes in Economic Conditions Might Affect the Federal Budget

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  • Congressional Budget Office

Abstract

To show the budgetary effects of scenarios in which economic conditions differ from those in the agency’s current economic forecast, CBO has developed “rules of thumb†that provide a rough sense of how changes in four key economic variables—productivity growth, labor force growth, interest rates, and inflation—would affect revenues, outlays, and deficits. The agency has released an interactive workbook along with the report that allows users to create their own alternative economic scenarios and see how those scenarios might affect the federal budget.

Suggested Citation

  • Congressional Budget Office, 2018. "How Changes in Economic Conditions Might Affect the Federal Budget," Reports 54052, Congressional Budget Office.
    • Handle: RePEc:cbo:report:54052
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    File URL: https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2018-06/54052-cbos-rules-thumb.pdf
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure

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