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Fiscal Compact - Implications for Ireland

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  • Weymes, Laura

    (Central Bank of Ireland)

  • Bermingham, Colin

    (Central Bank of Ireland)

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    Abstract

    This note examines the longer term implications for Ireland of changes to EU budgetary rules embodied in the Fiscal Compact. On the basis of fiscal projections to 2015, it presents illustrative scenarios showing the on-going correction in the budgetary position post-2015 needed to support compliance with these new rules. Using a newly developed fanchart modelling approach, it examines the near-term uncertainty around future fiscal outturns, demonstrating the budgetary implications which could arise were growth to diverge from its currently projected path. The fanchart methodology demonstrates graphically the degree to which fiscal outcomes depend jointly on exogenous shocks and policy decisions.

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    File URL: http://www.centralbank.ie/publications/Documents/Economic%20Letter%20-%20Vol%202012,%20No.%209.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Central Bank of Ireland in its series Economic Letters with number 09/EL/12.

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    Date of creation: Sep 2012
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    Handle: RePEc:cbi:ecolet:09/el/12

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    Cited by:
    1. Thorsteinn Thorgeirsson & Paul van den Noord, 2013. "The Icelandic banking collapse - was the optimal policy path chosen?," Economics wp62, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.

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