The "True" Deficit
AbstractIn this paper we propose a new methodology to improve the estimation of structural budget balances in Slovakia. Major innovations compared to currently used methods are in using more robust output gap estimates, inclusion of pensions in the analysis, imposing consistency between various gap measures, elimination of effects of different deflators and using time-varying elasticities. Significant attention is attached also to one-off and temporary measures, where we define 10 principles for identification. The estimation is complemented with bottom-up approaches which focus more directly on discretionary fiscal action. Latest changes to the European fiscal framework have strengthened significantly the role of structural budget balances. With the adoption of the Fiscal Compact there is a numerical threshold each year for the deviation of the structural balance from the medium - term objective (or the adjustment path toward it). Moreover, automatic correction mechanisms are activated if the deviation is above the threshold. The basic motivation of this paper was that independent fiscal institutions are going to play an important role in triggering these correction mechanisms.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Council for Budget Responsibility in its series Working Papers with number Working Paper No. 3/2014.
Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2014
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Imricha Karvasa 1, 813 25 Bratislava
Phone: ++421/2/5787 4959
Web page: http://www.rozpoctovarada.sk/eng/rozpocet/151/working-papers
More information through EDIRC
fiscal policy; budget balance; structural fiscal balance; one-off measures;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
- E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
- H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General
- H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General
- H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2014-05-04 (All new papers)
- NEP-EEC-2014-05-04 (European Economics)
- NEP-MAC-2014-05-04 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-PBE-2014-05-04 (Public Economics)
- NEP-PUB-2014-05-04 (Public Finance)
You can help add them by filling out this form.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.