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Are currency crises self-fulfilling? the case of Argentina

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Author Info
Virginie Boinet ()
Oreste Napolitano
Nicola Spagnolo

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Abstract

This paper analyzes the 2002 Argentine crisis using the Jeanne and Masson (2000) model with sunspots. Testing this model empirically through a Markov-switching model suggests that self-sulfilling prophecies is a reasonable explanation for the devaluation of the peso.

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File URL: http://www.brunel.ac.uk/329/efwps/02-26.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University in its series Public Policy Discussion Papers with number 02-26.

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Length: 7 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2002
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bru:bruppp:02-26

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Postal: Brunel University, Uxbridge, Middlesex UB8 3PH, UK

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Jeanne, Olivier & Masson, Paul R, 1998. "Currency Crises, Sunspots and Markov-Switching Regimes," CEPR Discussion Papers 1990, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Hansen, Bruce E, 1992. "The Likelihood Ratio Test under Nonstandard Conditions: Testing the Markov Switching Model of GNP," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages S61-82, Suppl. De. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Garcia, Rene, 1998. "Asymptotic Null Distribution of the Likelihood Ratio Test in Markov Switching Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(3), pages 763-88, August.
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  4. Maurice Obstfeld, 1994. "The Logic of Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 4640, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Erratum: The Likelihood Ratio Test under Nonstandard Conditions: Testing the Markov Switching Model of GNP," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(2), pages 195-98, March-Apr. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. García-Fronti, Javier & Miller, Marcus & Zhang, Lei, 2002. "Sovereign Default By Argentina: 'Slow Motion Train Crash' or Self-Fulfilling Crisis?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3399, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Jeanne, Olivier, 1997. "Are currency crises self-fulfilling?: A test," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3-4), pages 263-286, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Alberto Humala, 2005. "Interest rate pass-through and financial crises: do switching regimes matter? the case of Argentina," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 15(2), pages 77-94, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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