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The Euro exchange rate efficiency and risk premium:an ecm model

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Author Info
Oreste Napolitano*
martin sola ()
fabio spagnolod

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Abstract

The purpose of this work is to investigate the efficiency of the current Euro spot and current forward exchange rates. Within the past three decades there have been large movements in the exchange rate markets and often these movements were not related with the changes in the “fundamentals” of the economy. On the other hand, the exchange rate market efficiency implies that, if the market is efficient, there is no remaining ex ante opportunities for making profits through speculation. Hence, testing for efficiency involves the joint hypothesis of a specific risk premium and rationality. We analysed the relationship between spot and forward rates of the Euro against the British pound and the US dollar. For one of the two exchange rates (EU/UK), we reject the hypothesis of efficiency and a further analysis on the presence of a risk premium shows that it is consistent and time varying.

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File URL: http://www.brunel.ac.uk/329/efwps/02-14.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University in its series Public Policy Discussion Papers with number 02-14.

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Length: 12 pages
Date of creation: May 2002
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Handle: RePEc:bru:bruppp:02-14

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Postal: Brunel University, Uxbridge, Middlesex UB8 3PH, UK

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. MacDonald, Ronald & Torrance, Thomas S, 1990. "Expectations Formation and Risk in Four Foreign Exchange Markets," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 42(3), pages 544-61, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Lewis, Karen K, 1989. "Changing Beliefs and Systematic Rational Forecast Errors with Evidence from Foreign Exchange," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 621-36, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Jun Nagayasu, 2000. "Currency Crisis and Contagion - Evidence from Exchange Rates and Sectoral Stock Indices of the Philippines and Thailand," IMF Working Papers 00/39, International Monetary Fund.
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This page was last updated on 2009-12-9.

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