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The Equity Premium

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Author Info
Kyri Kyriacou
Jacob Madsen
Bryan Mase

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Abstract

Recent research on the equity risk premium has questioned the ability of historical estimates of the risk premium to provide reliable estimates of the expected risk premium. We calculate the equity risk premium for a number of countries over longer horizons than has been attempted to date. We show that the realised US equity premium is consistent with the premia obtained elsewhere. Furthermore, using well over a century of data, we find that current estimates of the equity premia are close to those observed during the pre-1914 era. This is of particular relevance given the argument that the financial environment during that period bears a closer resemblance to today than the 1914-1945 period, and possibly also the 1945-1971 period. This points to a current equity risk premium that is considerably lower than consensus forecasts (Welch 2001).

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University in its series Economics and Finance Discussion Papers with number 04-10.

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Length: 23 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bru:bruedp:04-10

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Postal: Brunel University, Uxbridge, Middlesex UB8 3PH, UK

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  1. Eugene F. Fama & Kenneth R. French, 2002. "The Equity Premium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(2), pages 637-659, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Raghuram G. Rajan & Luigi Zingales, 2001. "The Great Reversals: The Politics of Financial Development in the 20th Century," NBER Working Papers 8178, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Rietz, Thomas A., 1988. "The equity risk premium a solution," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 117-131, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. William N. Goetzmann & Lingfeng Li & K. Geert Rouwenhorst, 2001. "Long-Term Global Market Correlations," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm237, Yale School of Management. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Jonathan A. Parker, 2001. "The Consumption Risk of the Stock Market," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 32(2001-2), pages 279-348. [Downloadable!]
  6. Maurice Obstfeld & Alan M. Taylor, 2002. "Globalization and Capital Markets," NBER Working Papers 8846, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Heaton, John & Lucas, Deborah, 2000. "Portfolio Choice in the Presence of Background Risk," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(460), pages 1-26, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1985. "The equity premium: A puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-161, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Michael D. Bordo & Barry Eichengreen & Jongwoo Kim, 1998. "Was There Really an Earlier Period of International Financial Integration Comparable to Today?," NBER Working Papers 6738, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1988. "The equity risk premium: A solution?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 133-136, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Ivo Welch, 2001. "The Equity Premium Consensus Forecast Revisited," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1325, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
  12. La Porta, Rafael, et al, 1997. " Good News for Value Stocks: Further Evidence on Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(2), pages 859-74, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Ravi Jagannathan & Ellen R. McGrattan & Anna Scherbina, 2001. "The Declining U.S. Equity Premium," NBER Working Papers 8172, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Philippe Jorion & William N. Goetzmann, 1999. "Global Stock Markets in the Twentieth Century," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(3), pages 953-980, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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