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Metas de Inflação, Crescimento e Estabilidade Macroeconômica Uma análise a partir de um modelo póskeynesianomacrodinâmico não-linear

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  • Breno Santana Lobo

    ()
    (Departamento de Economia (Department of Economics) Faculdade de Economia, Administração, Contabilidade e Ciência da Informação e Documentação (FACE) (Faculty of Economics, Administration, Accounting and Information Science) Universidade de Brasília)

  • José Luis Oreiro

    (Departamento de Economia (Department of Economics) Faculdade de Economia, Administração, Contabilidade e Ciência da Informação e Documentação (FACE) (Faculty of Economics, Administration, Accounting and Information Science) Universidade de Brasília)

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to analyze the effects of adopting an inflation targeting regime, in which central banks set the short-term interest rate as a response to deviations of inflation from its target and of output from its potential, over economic growth. To this end, we build a non-linear post-keynesian growth model which allows the existence of more than one short-term equilibrium point. We conclude that maintaining a balanced short-term growth path after exogenous shocks depends largely on fiscal policy. Besides that, there are three possible long-term equilibrium configurations, two of which are inherently unstable. Long-term equilibrium stability of the third configuration depends on how central banks respond to deviations on inflation and output. More precisely, we show that a more cautious behavior from the Central Bank in a manner that it only increases short term interest rates when it is really required to do so could help the economy to have a balanced growth-path in the longrun.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Departamento de Economia da Universidade de Brasilia in its series Working papers - Textos para Discussao do Departamento de Economia da Universidade de Brasilia with number 360.

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Length: 26 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:brs:wpaper:360

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Keywords: inflation targeting; economic growth; dynamics; post-keynesian economics;

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