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A comparison of sequential and information-based methods for determining the co-integration rank in heteroskedastic VAR models

Author

Listed:
  • Giuseppe Cavaliere

    (Università di Bologna)

  • Luca De Angelis

    (Università di Bologna)

  • Anders Rahbek

    (University of Copenhagen)

  • A.M.Robert Taylor

    (University of Nottingham)

Abstract

In this paper we investigate the behaviour of a number of methods for estimating the co-integration rank in VAR systems characterized by heteroskedastic innovation processes. In particular we compare the efficacy of the most widely used information criteria, such as AIC and BIC, with the commonly used sequential approach of Johansen (1996) based around the use of either asymptotic or wild bootstrap-based likelihood ratio type tests. Complementing recent work done for the latter in Cavaliere, Rahbek and Taylor (2013, Econometric Reviews, forthcoming), we establish the asymptotic properties of the procedures based on information criteria in the presence of heteroskedasticity (conditional or unconditional) of a quite general and unknown form. The relative finite-sample properties of the different methods are investigated by means of a Monte Carlo simulation study. For the simulation DGPs considered in the analysis, we find that the BIC-based procedure and the bootstrap sequential test procedure deliver the best overall performance in terms of their frequency of selecting the correct co-integration rank across different values of the co-integration rank, sample size, stationary dynamics and models of heteroskedasticity. Of these the wild bootstrap procedure is perhaps the more reliable overall since it avoids a significant tendency seen in the BIC-based method to over-estimate the co-integration rank in relatively small sample sizes.

Suggested Citation

  • Giuseppe Cavaliere & Luca De Angelis & Anders Rahbek & A.M.Robert Taylor, 2013. "A comparison of sequential and information-based methods for determining the co-integration rank in heteroskedastic VAR models," Quaderni di Dipartimento 4, Department of Statistics, University of Bologna.
    • Handle: RePEc:bot:quadip:wpaper:121
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    Cited by:

    1. H. Peter Boswijk & Giuseppe Cavaliere & Luca De Angelis & A. M. Robert Taylor, 2023. "Adaptive information-based methods for determining the co-integration rank in heteroskedastic VAR models," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(9-10), pages 725-757, November.
    2. Gianluca Cubadda & Alain Hecq, 2022. "Dimension Reduction for High‐Dimensional Vector Autoregressive Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(5), pages 1123-1152, October.
    3. Pajor Anna & Wróblewska Justyna, 2017. "VEC-MSF models in Bayesian analysis of short- and long-run relationships," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 21(3), pages 1-22, June.
    4. Anna Pajor & Justyna Wróblewska, 2022. "Forecasting performance of Bayesian VEC-MSF models for financial data in the presence of long-run relationships," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 12(3), pages 427-448, September.
    5. Gianluca Cubadda & Alain Hecq, 2020. "Dimension Reduction for High Dimensional Vector Autoregressive Models," Papers 2009.03361, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2022.
    6. Gianluca Cubadda & Marco Mazzali, 2023. "The Vector Error Correction Index Model: Representation, Estimation and Identification," CEIS Research Paper 556, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 04 Apr 2023.

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